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Experts See Gloomy Outlook – especially for the United States

According to experts gathered in Lake Como, Italy:

Americans “just have to go down in their living standards” after years in which their living standards soared in part based on foreign credit which is no longer there,” said University of Munich economics professor Hans-Werner Sinn. Jacob Frenkel, Chairman of JP Morgan Chase International, urged the United States to rein in entitlements as part of a “political deal” that recognizes reality.

Harvard University historian Niall Ferguson noted that since 2001 the United States has seen its debt-to-GDP ratio double to 66 percent and that it may well be headed toward the danger zone of 100 percent. “This is a completely unsustainable fiscal policy,” said Ferguson. “Pretty soon the U.S. will be spending more on debt service than national security. … That’s a tipping point for any global power.”

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  1. Dallas Lady Dallas Lady says

    The rest of the world economy is starting to bend the curve.  Meanwhile, we are not.   The guys over at Hillbuzz did a great piece on the economy.  Some of their highlights:

    I can’t really identify a single point in time when the term “jobless recovery” began making its rounds, but no doubt it was rustled from the deep recesses of economic vernacular by some OXY(gen deprived)MORON who thought it would be a good way to stop having to use the word “recession”.  Don’t get me wrong: I’m not disputing the existence or validity of such a term. A “jobless recovery” is certainly a viable economic occurrence. But only in the sense that that the economic indicators show a paper recovery. It’s kind of like having a $300,000 sports car in the garage, but no gas to put in the tank.

    I’m simply saying this so-called jobless recovery is not what we were promised. The team of top economists assembled by the “smartest administration ever” promised us their $800 billion economic stimulus plan would keep unemployment below 8%. We were supposed to be well on our way to 7% by now. Even their worst-case prediction wasn’t this bad.

    (Dallas Lady Notes:  There they show the graphs of the USA’s continuing unemployment climbs, compared to Germany and Canada who both are beginning to bend the curve of unemployment).

    I hate to just paint an ugly picture and sign off, so I’ll go ahead and opine on why the recovery is thus far jobless. I believe it comes down to a single word: uncertainty.

    Business hates uncertainty because uncertainty represents risk. Business people — especially small business owners and entrepreneurs — are inherently risk-averse. Therefore, the very people everyone is waiting on to fuel the jobs recovery are themselves waiting to see what their business climate is going to look like.

    Unfortunately for America (especially the folks who are unemployed), virtually every major piece of legislation either on the table or already passed by this Congress creates more and more uncertainty for business. Nobody knows how Obamacare is going to impact their business. Nobody knows how Obama’s latest economic regulations are going to impact them or the business climate. Nobody knows when credit is going to relax. Nobody knows if Cap & Trade or Card Check will pass. Nobody knows what will happen after this year’s election. The list goes on and on.

    I compare it to football. How could a coach prepare his team if he didn’t know how many yards the field was going to be, how many downs he would have per possession, or how many points would be awarded for reaching the end zone?

    The comparison sounds ridiculous, but when the government passes legislation that imposes or alters requirements, or changes economic regulations, it is essentially the same as “changing the rule book” or “altering the playing field”. No coach could prepare for that scenario, and neither can a business owner.

    It’s a shame that Congress doesn’t “get it”. But really, why should they? Figures indicate that an absolute maximum of 30% of all members of Congress have any business experience, compared to over 40% who are lawyers. Sadly, the actual figures of practical business leadership experience is probably much, much lower, I would estimate around 10-15%.

    It’s no wonder Congress sucks at fixing the economy. They are clueless about the factors that drive entrepreneurship and hiring, because they’re clueless about business in general!

    If we really want to fix our economy then we need to support and vote for candidates who actually understand business. And since these days big business is often in bed with big government, I prefer folks who have run small businesses.

     

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    • Elisa's Custom Creations Elisa's Custom Creations says

      Amen.

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    • ThurmanLady ThurmanLady says

      Good stuff, DL.  Having worked with lawyers for more than 20 years (until I lost my job just over a year and a half ago) I can vouch for many not having a clue!  I’m pretty sure I got “laid off” in January of 2009 because of the uncertain economic climate.  Now, it appears, even lawyers aren’t hiring!

      I am now following a retired military man/business man who is running in my area for Congress.  He seems to have what I’m looking for and what your post is talking about.

      I definitely have my hopes up for the next election to make a difference in our Congress and Senate, not to mention at the state level for my state.

       

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      • Dallas Lady Dallas Lady says

        My husband is one of those small business owners.  When I met him  6-7 years ago, he had several employees (6 I believe).  Today it is him and 1 other guy.  He is in a very specialized unique business that supports manufacturing.  There is no manufacturing in the USA.  He has downsized and downsized and downsized.  His goal is to simply keep enough business alive to last him the next 4 to 5 years ingo retirement where he can draw Soc Sec and pension from another long term employer from years ago.  Sustain his business?  build his business?  have capital in his business?    Pass it on to his daughter?  Invest in it?  build it?

        HAHAHAHAHA  What a joke.  Total fallacy.

        Nothing in it for him.  Nothing in it for her.  Its dying.  Plain and simple.  its on life support.  And all he can hope for is to eeekkk out an existence to basically break even for him and his only employee for a couple of more years.

        Thank god for him that he married me.  Bluntly I sold my soul to big corporate america long ago.  Sad to say  but it is the damn truth.  As a result, I can cover our roof, our food and our medical insurance (at least until corporate America turns me out) as a result of me selling my soul.  He can cover not much anymore. And this economy and this uncertainty is offering him nothing in the process.

        it is what it is.

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      • ThurmanLady ThurmanLady says

        Not sure which is worse – selling your soul to corporations or to lawyers!  LOL!

        Is your husband interested in running for Congress?  He’d probably know more about what to do than those darn lawyers!

        Got any work I can do from home?  I still need a job!!

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      • Dallas Lady Dallas Lady says

        He’s definitely not Congressman material………and I’m definitely not CongressWIFE material hahaha

        Alas we don’t do any telecommute work  except for some IT types of jobs,and we have a strict rule about not hiring otuside of Texas….dont want to be set up as an employer in multiple states and all the headaches that come fromt htat. 

        I’m sending good wishes for your job search

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